Category: Theory & methods
-
Being able to know what’s happening in the economy in something close to real time is of great value to policy-makers, business leaders, journalists and households. A new ‘nowcasting’ tool developed here at UCL Economics provides updated ways to measure both GDP and inflation with greater accuracy.
-
How important are the ups and downs of the economy for individual families? Personal setbacks have more permanent effects on households’ lifetime earnings than a general economic downturn. But macroeconomic shocks are still critical because they set the stage on which microeconomic shocks play out.
-
Policy-makers need to know that the research evidence on which their decisions are based is reliable. A powerful new testing method can assess the strengths and weaknesses of instruments used to analyse complex webs of cause-and-effect relationships – and thereby deliver better-informed advice.
-
When a computer model can decide someone’s future, that individual deserves to be judged on their own merits, not just by how they compare to a majority group of which they might not be part. A new analytical technique points towards a world where data help us to understand people’s unique stories.
-
Public opinion is constantly shaped by competing stories about what drives social and economic outcomes. Economic theory provides a systematic way to think about how false narratives – about, say, the impact of tariffs on jobs – can come to dominate true narratives before returning to rationality.
-
Half a century ago, economic research in the top journals took a turn towards issues of community, place, family, religion and identity. This was associated with novel empirical methods including experiments, large data sets and an increasing focus on social norms and strategic interactions.
-
Many big policy decisions – including environmental regulations, major tax shifts and universal health interventions – are national in scope. This makes it difficult to evaluate their effectiveness since everyone is affected by the new measure. An innovative econometric tool provides a solution.
-
Even good used cars sell at a discount because buyers can’t tell them apart from bad ones – so-called lemons. Nevertheless, many people still sell good cars – but the lemons penalty reduces car turnover, slows down upgrades and limits low-wealth households’ ability to use cars as financial buffers.
-
From tax policy to financial markets, social movements and more, hidden networks of influence shape the world. Economic research is opening up new ways to understand how influence spreads through society – with potential applications in policy design, crisis prevention and business strategy.
-
Relationships between economic and financial variables naturally change over time, but many of the analytical models used in decision-making assume that the underlying parameters remain constant. A novel theory provides a more flexible framework for research, forecasting and policy design.
