Author: Raffaella Giacomini
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In the wake of soaring prices in 2022, people’s long-term expectations for future inflation rose sharply. This jump was mostly caused by the sheer size of the surprise, not by a belief that rising prices were here to stay. In contrast with the 1980s, today’s inflation expectations remain anchored.
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Being able to know what’s happening in the economy in something close to real time is of great value to policy-makers, business leaders, journalists and households. A new ‘nowcasting’ tool developed here at UCL Economics provides updated ways to measure both GDP and inflation with greater accuracy.
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When a computer model can decide someone’s future, that individual deserves to be judged on their own merits, not just by how they compare to a majority group of which they might not be part. A new analytical technique points towards a world where data help us to understand people’s unique stories.
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Many big policy decisions – including environmental regulations, major tax shifts and universal health interventions – are national in scope. This makes it difficult to evaluate their effectiveness since everyone is affected by the new measure. An innovative econometric tool provides a solution.
