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Econ Brief

Cutting-edge research from the UCL Department of Economics

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Author: Franck Portier

  • Labour market tightness and recent inflation: learning the right lessons

    Prices & interest rates

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    26th January 2026

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    Franck Portier

    Paul Beaudry

    Chenyu Hou

    The inflation of 2021-23 has reignited debate among economists about the impact of labour market tightness on inflationary pressures – a connection long known as the Phillips curve. New research warns that assuming a nonlinear relationship could lead to significant policy mis-steps.

    Labour market tightness and recent inflation: learning the right lessons

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